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Five Mistakes Every Decision Maker Needs to Avoid

This webinar, now available for replay, highlights five mistakes decision makers need to avoid to achieve clarity.


DQ for Everyday Significant Decisions – When Decision Professionals will not be Present

Designed for decision professionals, this webinar explores how members of the profession can influence the vast majority of business...


Decision Making: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

  Why do seemingly good decisions sometimes turn out all wrong? Conventional thinking confuses decisions with outcomes; a good...


“Johnson Quantile-Parameterized Distributions”

by Christopher C. Hadlock and J. Eric Bickel In the field of decision analysis, it is common practice to elicit...


The Upside of Risk

Forward-thinking companies are moving beyond risk protection and compliance to embrace the upside of risk. Focused on ways to...


An Organization-Wide Approach to Good Decision-Making

Strategic Decisions Group CEO Carl Spetzler and Larry Neal, the recently retired manager of Decision Analysis at Chevron Corporation,...


You Can’t Make Good Predictions Without Embracing Uncertainty

Harvard Business Review has featured an article from Strategic Decisions Group CEO Carl Spetzler and Peter Hopper, who leads the...


How Biases Sabotage Your Best Decisions

The human intellect is extremely powerful and capable. But our minds have evolved with biases that work against good...


Game Theory and the Psychology of Fairness

What are the best ways to approach decisions when there are multiple decision makers, each with different information, motives,...


Negotiation: Closing the Quality Gap

Decision making frequently occurs in a multiparty setting, with each person bringing slightly different preferences and even opposing points...


Decision Quality: How to Make the Right Choice the First Time

Decision quality empowers you to make the best possible choice and get more of what you truly want from...


Diversity of Decisions: Adding Quality in All Situations

In this webinar designed for decision professionals, our speaker Dr. Mark Seidler discusses how to determine and select the best...


Strategic Perspective Needed in T&D Asset Management

At an increasing pace, power system outages are destroying billions of dollars in value every year. The United States endures more...


eBook: Closing the Decision Quality Gap

One of the virtues of decision quality is that it allows us to know if we’ve made a good decision...


Infographic: The Top Three Megabiases

Most of us assume we make good decisions using sound reasoning. But in reality, we all fall victim to...


Infographic: Building ODQ

How can your organization benchmark Decision Quality (DQ)? Achieving true Organizational Decision Quality (ODQ) requires more than the adoption...


Article and Risk-Adjusted-Value Excel Tool

Business executives often have to make major decisions without knowing exactly how they will turn out. Many factors, all...


“Microrisks for Medical Decision Analysis”

by Ronald A. Howard In this publication [$], Professor Ron Howard develops the concept of a micromort to assist with...


“Decision Analysis: Practice and Promise”

by Ronald A. Howard In this paper [$], Professor Ron Howard coins the term “Decision Quality” and specifies the six...


“Influence Diagrams”

by Ronald A. Howard and James E. Matheson In this paper [$], Professor Ron Howard and Dr. Matheson define and...


The Development of a Corporate Risk Policy for Capital Investment Decisions

by Carl S. Spetzler In this publication [$], Dr. Carl Spetzler presents the first effort to assess and deploy a...


“Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis”

by Carl S. Spetzler and Carl-Axel S. von Holstein Developed in consultation with Professor Amos Tversky and Professor Daniel...


“Decision Analysis: Applied Decision Theory”

by Ronald A. Howard This is the publication that started it all. In this paper, Professor Ron Howard of...


“Quantifying the Reliability and Value of 3D Land Seismic”

by Eric Bickel, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. McVay, Stephen Pickering, and John Waggoner In this paper [$], Professor Eric...


“Modeling Dependence Among Geologic Risks in Sequential Exploration Decisions”

by Eric Bickel, James E. Smith and Jennifer L. Meyer In this paper [$], Professor Eric Bickel, Professor Jim Smith...


“Climate Engineering and Climate Tipping-Point Scenarios”

by J. Eric Bickel In this paper [$], Professor Eric Bickel presents a decision-analytic approach to decision-making for climate-change policy....


“Managing R&D Portfolios for Improved Profitability and Productivity”

by James E. Matheson, Michael M. Menke, and Stephen L. Derby. This paper addresses four questions fundamental when using...


“How SmithKline Beecham Makes Better Resource Allocation Decisions”

by Paul Sharpe and Tom Keelin In this paper, former SDG consultant Tom Keelin and Paul Sharpe of then-SmithKline...


“Portfolio Management in an Upstream Oil and Gas Organization”

A portfolio management process and system changes how decisions are made in an organization and builds confidence in the...


“Comparing NWS PoP Forecasts to Third-Party Providers”

by J. Eric Bickel Featured in Nate Silver’s bestselling book The Signal and the Noise, Professor Eric Bickel analyzes...


“On the Decision to Take a Pitch”

by Eric Bickel. In this paper [$], Professor Eric Bickel applies decision analysis to an important decision made during all...


“On the Decision Relevance of Stochastic Oil Price Models: A Case Study”

by Robert K. Hammond and Eric Bickel Hydrocarbon (oil, natural gas, liquids) are highly uncertain, so SDG uses a...


“Reexamining Discrete Approximations to Continuous Distributions”

by Robert K. Hammond and Eric Bickel On most decision analysis projects, decision analysts weight the P10, P50 and...


“Quantile-Parameterized Distributions”

by Thomas W. Keelin and Bradford W. Powley It is quite common in the practice of decision analysis to...


“Some Determinants of Corporate Risk Aversion”

by Eric Bickel In this paper [$], Professor Eric Bickel summarizes the rationale for developing a consistent corporate risk appetite...


“The Relationship between Perfect and Imperfect Information in a Two-Action Risk-Sensitive Problem”

by Eric Bickel How much is data worth? How much is it worth to reduce uncertainty? These are common...


Infographic: Innovations That Pace Research & Development

High costs and long time horizons put immense pressure on the drug development industry to find ways to get...