Decision Modeling and Monte Carlo Analysis
This 2-day workshop builds skills and best practices for creating spreadsheet models, extracting powerful insights, and presenting analysis results to those who make complex strategic decisions.
This course builds upon and reinforces several of the decision analysis topics taught in Dialogue Decision Process, SDG's 3-day source on making smarter, faster, and more creative long-term decisions.
Participants will build a complete decision model, conduct probabilistic analysis, and generate graphics to communicate insights. Topics include:
- Introduction to decision modeling
- Structuring an Excel model for probabilistic analysis
- Applying best practices in spreadsheet modeling with Excel
- Debugging models
- Generating insights from tornado diagrams
- Setting up a Monte Carlo simulation (we demonstrate Crystal Ball)
- Drawing and communicating insights
This course is designed for those expected to build decision models and conduct probabilistic analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. Each participant is expected to have a laptop computer with Excel installed and to be familiar with but not necessarily expert in using Excel. Most of the software tools used in the workshop are given to participants; a demonstration version of Oracle's Crystal Ball should be downloaded prior to the workshop.
Because this workshop builds direclty on the material taught in SDG's DDP course, we strongly encourage participants to have completed that course or its equivalent prior to this workshop.
